Important events today:

03.11 15:00 UTC: USD – ISM Manufacturing Index

The euro is trading near multi-week lows, as interest in the US dollar remains supported by expectations of upcoming US labor and business activity data, as well as Federal Reserve signals of a more cautious easing trajectory following the October rate cut. The market is pricing in a lower probability of another cut in December, which strengthens the dollar and limits the euro’s recovery.

Demand for safe-haven dollar assets is also reinforced by geopolitical developments: progress in US–China trade dialogue has reduced tariff escalation risks and helped stabilize US yields. Against this backdrop, the euro remains vulnerable, as the eurozone economy shows uneven growth while inflation expectations gradually shift lower.

An additional factor of pressure comes from more dovish signals from the ECB regarding price dynamics outlook for 2025–2026. Taken together, these drivers support a scenario of moderate EURUSD decline, with volatility persisting around US macro releases and central bank commentary.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1535, SL 1.1565, TP 1.1485