No important events are expected today.

The ECB’s 0.25 percentage point key rate hike did not become an unambiguous support for the Euro. At the same time, the regulator warned that the energy shock increases inflationary risks and lowered the Eurozone growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%. This creates a difficult environment for the single currency: a restrictive policy is needed for price stability, but weak activity and declining real incomes limit interest in European assets.

The Dollar maintains its advantage due to expectations that the Fed will not ease conditions quickly. In June, the committee left the rate range at 3.50–3.75%, noting a steady economic pace and inflation above the target. The market is waiting for US employment data and speeches at the ECB forum: a strong labor market is capable of cementing expectations of a long period of high rates in the US.

The ECB rate hike looks more like a response to inflationary risks than a signal of acceleration in the European economy. While uncertainty around energy and growth persists, and interest in the Dollar is supported by expectations regarding the Fed, the baseline scenario for EUR/USD allows for a decline. The selling idea corresponds to the divergence in the resilience of the two economies and the current demand for the US currency.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1390, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1330.