Key Events Today:

30.09 12:30 UTC: USD – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ.

The Pound approaches the European session near three-month lows, although the UK domestic backdrop does not appear explicitly weak. The market allows for a hawkish trajectory from the Bank of England due to inflationary pressures, while statements on fiscal discipline have partially supported British assets. These factors limit the pace of decline in GBP/USD, but have not yet generated sustained momentum in favor of the Pound.

The key external factor remains the gap between high US yields and the more vulnerable valuation of British assets. The US Dollar is supported by strong US economic indicators and expectations of another Fed rate hike this year. John Williams’ statement reduced the likelihood of an immediate tightening in October, but the market is still awaiting confirmation from upcoming inflation and employment data.

For GBP/USD, the outlook appears more balanced than for the Euro: the Bank of England is capable of containing pressure on the Pound, but overall US Dollar momentum remains stronger. Given the downside that has already taken place, further selling potential appears limited; therefore, the baseline scenario suggests a moderate continuation of the trend, provided US economic data does not trigger a major revision of Fed expectations.

Recommendations: SELL 1.3240, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3180.