No major events are expected today.

The pair is holding near 159.40 and remains sensitive to the divergence in approaches between the US and Japan. The Japanese currency is weakening as market confidence in an imminent policy tightening by the Bank of England fades amid global uncertainty and high energy prices. For Japan, rising oil prices are particularly sensitive: they worsen the trade balance and put pressure on the Yen.

An additional factor was the statement from Japanese authorities that an agreement has been reached with the US to strengthen cooperation regarding the foreign exchange market. This signal serves as a reminder that the zone around 160 remains sensitive. While the Bank of Japan remains cautious and the likelihood of an immediate rate hike decreases, the yield differential between the US and Japan continues to work against the Yen.

On the Dollar side, support is provided by the resilience of the US economy. The US labor market remains strong, and investors expect the Federal Reserve to be in no hurry to change rates. Despite the overall weakening of the Dollar in recent days, there is still room for the pair to rise further if tensions in the commodities markets do not fully subside. Under these conditions, the base case for today suggests a continued climb for the pair.

Recommendations: BUY 159.40, SL 158.90, TP 160.90.