Important events today:

24.10 12:30 UTC: USD – Consumer Price Index

The pair is holding above 152.50 due to stable demand for the US dollar ahead of the US inflation release. Higher energy prices are worsening Japan’s terms of trade and increasing capital outflows into higher-yielding assets, supporting the dollar against the yen. In addition, expectations of fiscal stimulus in Tokyo maintain loose financial conditions domestically, limiting the yen’s strengthening potential.

At the same time, domestic inflation in Japan remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, theoretically bringing the regulator closer to discussions on further normalization. However, without clear acceleration in economic growth and wages, the Bank acts gradually, avoiding sharp moves. This balance of risks keeps a premium in favor of the dollar until US data and the next Federal Reserve stance become clearer.

In the short term, the news structure supports continued moderate USDJPY growth: US rate expectations remain the key driver, while external factors (energy prices, geopolitics) support demand for the dollar as a reserve asset. Risks to this scenario include unexpectedly weak US inflation or signals of earlier tightening by the Bank of Japan.

Recommendations: BUY 152.85, SL 152.25, TP 153.80