No major events are expected today.

The pair is declining on Monday amid a strengthening US Dollar. At the start of the European session, the pair is holding near 1.1760 after Friday’s US employment data came in stronger than expected. The job growth of 115k against a forecast of 62k supported the view that the Fed may keep rates at current levels for longer, ensuring steady demand for the Greenback.

The US currency is receiving additional support from renewed market caution regarding the situation between the US and Iran. Washington’s rejection of a new peace proposal has intensified Middle East concerns, while a spike in oil prices raises inflation risks once again. Under these conditions, investors are less likely to price in rapid Fed easing, limiting demand for the Euro despite continued interest in Eurozone assets.

The main factor containing the decline in EUR/USD remains expectations of a more hawkish ECB stance. Markets allow for a rate hike at upcoming meetings, as rising energy prices could complicate the fight against inflation. However, in the short term, the advantage lies with the Dollar: strong US statistics and geopolitical tensions create conditions for a downward correction in the pair.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1765, SL 1.1795, TP 1.1675.