No significant events are expected today.

The EUR/USD pair is holding near 1.16 on Monday, slightly retreating from last week’s highs. The dollar is supported by fading expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut and a moderate rise in the dollar index. Investors are less confident in a fast easing cycle in the US, which restores interest in the American currency after the euro’s recent rally.

The key fundamental driver remains the yield differential between US and Eurozone bonds. US Treasury yields remain noticeably higher, while Europe shows slower economic growth and steadily cooling inflation. This forces the ECB to keep rates lower for longer and maintain cautious communication about potential future tightening.

Against this backdrop, any EUR/USD moves toward 1.16–1.17 appear more like corrections within the broader range than the start of a sustainable trend. With the ongoing rate gap and stronger US economic performance, demand for the dollar remains more stable. We view current levels as comfortable for selling the pair with expectations of a return toward 1.1500.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1600, SL 1.1620, TP 1.1530