No major events are expected today.

EUR/USD is holding near 1.18 at the start of the week, while demand for the dollar remains mixed: a U.S. court ruling on tariffs reduced the premium for trade restrictions, but subsequent statements about new duties brought uncertainty back to the market and limited risk appetite.

U.S. macroeconomic data added arguments in favor of a more cautious Federal Reserve policy: inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index accelerated, while economic growth at the end of 2025 was weaker than expected amid budget-related factors. In such an environment, market participants are less willing to price in rapid rate cuts, supporting yields on dollar-denominated assets.

In the eurozone, the European Central Bank maintains a wait-and-see stance and assesses inflation as close to its medium-term target. However, external trade and overall global demand dynamics remain risks for the euro: new U.S. restrictions could worsen export and growth expectations. Against this backdrop, the base scenario implies moderate dollar strengthening and a pullback in the pair.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1820, SL 1.1840, TP 1.1730