No major events are expected today.
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair caught a bid, rising above the 1.3300 mark and reversing early-week losses, as global markets swayed with broad-based dollar sentiment. UK employment data had little impact, and the market’s reaction to US CPI inflation was similarly muted. Investors remain focused on hopes that ongoing trade negotiations between the Trump administration and virtually everyone else continue to shape overall sentiment, though all tariff concessions made by the Trump team have been purely temporary.
The UK’s ILO unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.5% as expected, while April’s claimant count rose by only 5.2K — far less than expected, though still worse than the March drop of -16.9K. In the US, April CPI inflation declined slightly, and annual core inflation fell to a new three-year low. However, the Trump administration’s trade strategy — involving triple-digit tariffs against major trading partners — is expected to be implemented in May, and market experts believe this may be the last decent CPI print for a while.
Sterling markets will now await Thursday’s release of Q1 GDP figures for the UK. Consensus forecasts expect quarterly GDP growth to rebound to 0.6% from 0.1% in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, forecasts suggest the lingering effects of last year’s economic slowdown will persist, with expectations for annual GDP growth to drop to 1.2% from 1.5%.
Recommendation: BUY 1.3330, SL 1.3310, TP 1.3420.