Important events today:

05.01 15:00 UTC: USD – ISM Manufacturing Index

EUR/USD on Monday, January 5, is trading around 1.1680–1.1700. The dollar is strengthening at the start of the first full week of 2026 as investors refocus on fresh U.S. data and reduce risk appetite. Sentiment is also affected by rising geopolitical uncertainty: any surge in news typically supports demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting the U.S. currency.

The main focus of the day is U.S. manufacturing activity data and its impact on expectations for the Fed’s rate path in 2026. If the figures remain solid, it will be harder for markets to price in a rapid rate cut, giving the dollar additional support. Another source of volatility is anticipation around the decision on the next Fed chair, increasing sensitivity to comments and forecast revisions.

In the eurozone, there are fewer short-term drivers. The ECB is focused on keeping inflation near target, while the economic recovery remains uneven. With the U.S. agenda dominating and investors staying cautious, the euro may remain under pressure, especially if U.S. data confirms resilient demand and employment.

Recommendation: SELL 1.1685, SL 1.1715, TP 1.1595