Key events today:

15.09 12:30 UTC: USD – Empire Manufacturing Index.

15.09 18:30 UTC: USD – ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks.

EURUSD on Monday, September 15, holds near 1.1730 amid “central bank week.” The market is almost fully pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut on Wednesday, September 17, with the updated dot plot and Jerome Powell’s tone being decisive for the dollar. Temporary demand for safe-haven assets and cautious positioning ahead of the meeting support the USD and limit euro upside.

For the euro, European risk factors add pressure: a downgraded credit outlook for France and the region’s weak recovery. The ECB is expected to remain on pause, focusing on inflation trajectory and growth risks. The contrast in communication with the Fed — where investors expect faster normalization — tilts short-term risks in favor of the dollar.

Conclusion: in the coming sessions, the fundamental backdrop looks moderately bearish for EUR/USD. We prefer selling from 1.1735 with a target at 1.1685. Risk scenario — if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps and/or signals a dovish path, the dollar may weaken, and the pair could rally; in this case, a stop at 1.1765 limits downside.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1685.