Important events today:

01.05 14:00 UTC: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The pair is trading near 157.25 following a sharp decline from levels above 160.00. The primary factor for the pair remains intervention by Japanese authorities aimed at supporting the Yen. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has warned that it stands ready to act again against excessive exchange rate movements, especially during a period of low liquidity due to the holiday week.

The US Dollar maintains fundamental support due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan; however, this argument is currently weakened by the heightened risk of new actions from Tokyo. The Bank of Japan left the rate at 0.75%, but three representatives of the regulator advocated for a hike to 1.00%, fueling expectations of more decisive steps at upcoming meetings.

For USD/JPY, the priority is shifting toward a decline. Even if demand for the Dollar persists, market participants may reduce positions in the pair due to the risk of repeated intervention and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike in June. Additional pressure on the Dollar against the Yen may emerge if investors decide to take profits following the pair’s strong rally in April.

Recommendations: SELL 157.25, SL 158.15, TP 154.55.