No major events are expected today.

The euro remains under pressure, with the exchange rate falling to 1.1735 amid a combination of monetary policy factors and weak economic data from the Eurozone. Recent statistics show cooling inflation in the region, increasing expectations for a second round of ECB easing this fall. At the same time, the dollar is supported by growing market expectations of another Fed rate hike in September following a strong core PCE report.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized around 4.46%, maintaining the dollar’s appeal for global investors. On the political front, the U.S.-EU agreement on a tariff framework for industrial goods has reduced market nervousness but failed to improve the euro’s outlook: investors are focused on rate differentials and the widening economic growth gap across the Atlantic.

Additional pressure comes from Germany’s export orders, which have declined for the third consecutive month, raising the risk of a technical recession in the second half of the year. The combination of weak Eurozone macro data and hawkish Fed commentary creates a bearish fundamental backdrop for the pair.

Recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635.