Ethereum is trying to recover after its recent downturn and is holding around $2,814 — just a step away from the psychologically important $3,000 level. Long-term holders are supporting the market: the HODLer Net Position Change metric is improving, which typically signals reduced selling and growing confidence in a continued recovery.

But the loyalty of existing participants may not be enough. The number of new addresses on the network is rising weakly and essentially moving sideways, meaning fresh capital is barely entering the market. Without new demand, ETH risks staying under resistance for a long time, even with a strong base of holders.

If inflows of new money pick up, Ethereum could break through $3,000, turn the level into support, and open the way to the $3,131 zone and higher. But as long as interest from new investors remains weak, the recovery looks fragile and may drag on.