No major events are expected today.

Fresh producer price data from Japan has strengthened the case for the yen. In June, the figure rose by 7.1 percent in annual terms against expectations of 6.8 percent, while the cost of imports in yen increased at the fastest pace since 2022. The acceleration of costs raises the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will return to the interest rate question once again.

The regulator has already warned that companies are passing higher raw material and fuel costs into final prices more rapidly. Following the June rate hike to 1 percent, the market allows for another step before the end of the year, which gradually reduces the dollar advantage in carry trade operations. US asset yields still support the American currency, but declining expectations of a quick Federal Reserve decision weaken this factor.

Yen weakness simultaneously increases import costs and keeps the attention of Japanese authorities focused on the currency market. The risk of official actions does not determine the direction on its own, but it is now combined with a fresh inflationary signal and a more convincing basis for further Bank of Japan decisions. Under these conditions, a USDJPY decline looks like a more stable scenario, provided the dollar does not receive new support from US data.

Recommendations: SELL 161.45, SL 161.75, TP 160.55.