No major events are expected today.

The interest rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan has returned to the spotlight: the U.S. regulator signals readiness to keep the Fed Funds rate at its peak through Q4, while the BoJ continues to hold 10-year JGB yields near 1.2% through targeted bond purchases to smooth volatility. These actions limit yield growth in Japan, creating persistent pressure on the yen and keeping the pair above 148.50.

Political risks also weigh on the national currency. Polls ahead of the upper house elections on July 20 suggest the ruling coalition may lose control. In anticipation of a possible change in government, local institutional investors are increasing allocations to risk-free assets, thereby lowering domestic yields and pushing USDJPY toward the upper boundary of the channel.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance, in its Q3 intervention schedule, did not indicate readiness for currency intervention, describing the exchange rate movement as “orderly.” In the absence of official dollar selling, the pair may test the March high at 149.60. A stop order is recommended at 148.10, below the short-term importer demand level.

Recommendation: BUY 148.60, SL 148.10, TP 149.60.