Important events today:

17.06 06:00 UTC: GBP – Consumer Price Index.

17.06 12:30 UTC: USD – Retail Sales Chg.

17.06 18:00 UTC: USD – FOMC Interest Rate Decision.

The Pound approaches the Bank of England’s decision in a more complex position than the Euro: the global background no longer provides the Dollar with its former advantage, but the British currency has few strong arguments of its own left. The market is waiting for May inflation, fresh labor data, and retail sales, as these will show how resilient domestic demand remains. Until these confirmations emerge, buying of the Pound may remain restrained.

The Bank of England, according to economists’ expectations, will keep the rate unchanged on June 18. For GBP/USD, what matters is not just the outcome of the meeting itself, but also how ready the regulator will be to acknowledge the risks of accelerating services inflation. The decline in oil prices following the Middle East news partially eases inflation expectations but does not resolve questions regarding consumer activity and the UK’s fiscal risks.

Even with a softer Dollar, Sterling could remain vulnerable if investors decide to wait for fresh statistics and comments from the Bank of England. Political uncertainty could also limit interest in British assets. Therefore, the baseline scenario for GBP/USD remains cautious: in the absence of strong domestic signals, the pair may face pressure.

Recommendations: BUY 1.3425, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3335.