No major events expected today.

The euro is holding around 1.1430–1.1450 early in the week after hitting multi-month lows. Pressure on the single currency persists due to sustained demand for the dollar ahead of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings. This is particularly sensitive for the eurozone, as high oil prices increase inflation risks while restraining economic growth.

The situation is further complicated by a new energy shock. Market participants are revising rate expectations, and the eurozone’s industrial sector faces rising costs even before the full effect of commodity price jumps is felt. In this environment, the euro struggles to find support: the region’s economy appears more vulnerable than the US, while the dollar benefits from strong demand for safe-haven assets.

The base scenario for EUR/USD today remains bearish. Even if the pair attempts a recovery, the fundamental picture does not yet provide the euro with solid support: high energy costs weigh on business activity, and the market still gravitates toward the dollar. As long as these factors persist, selling on rallies looks preferable to buying.

Recommendation: SELL 1.1445, SL 1.1475, TP 1.1355