Key events for today:

27.02 13:30 UTC: USD – Producer Price Index.

USD/JPY is slipping toward 155.60 on Friday: the yen is finding support on the back of firmer inflation and demand data in Japan, increasing the probability of further normalization by the Bank of Japan. If domestic prices and consumption continue to rise, it becomes easier for the regulator to stay on a gradual path away from ultra-loose conditions, which supports demand for the yen.

On the U.S. side, the key factor is the trajectory of inflation and the labor market. If producer prices and consumer spending data confirm persistent price pressures, the dollar gets support as expectations shift toward a longer period of high rates. However, any signs of slowing growth or weakening business activity quickly revive the discussion of lower rates in 2026 and reduce the dollar’s appeal.

The pair is also influenced by global demand for safe-haven assets: when market tensions rise, the yen typically benefits due to capital repatriation and a lower reliance on external funding. With a moderately neutral external backdrop and Japanese macro data staying stronger than expected, the base risk for USD/JPY tilts to the downside.

Recommendation: SELL 155.60, SL 156.10, TP 154.10