Key events today:

12:30 UTC: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair tested the lower boundary but ended the day stubbornly holding near the 1.0400 mark. Euro traders were unimpressed by the EU retail sales data, which came out exactly as expected. Meanwhile, USD traders remained cautious ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.

Retail sales growth in Europe reached 1.9% year-on-year in December, matching market forecasts and slightly exceeding the revised previous figure of 1.6%. Despite the annual growth, monthly retail sales actually declined by -0.2%, compared to 0.0% in the previous month, which was also revised downward.

U.S. economic data on Thursday was mostly moderate: weekly initial jobless claims rose to 219K for the week ending January 31. Analysts had expected 213K, while the previous week’s figure was slightly revised to 208K.

New Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is scheduled for release on Friday. Forecasts suggest that net job growth in January will drop to 170K, compared to 256K in December. This week, we will closely monitor any revisions to previous data. Historically, post-publication revisions in 2024 have generally shown higher figures, disappointing market participants who were hoping for signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market that could push the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward further rate cuts.

Recommendation: Primarily trading with Sell orders from the current price level.