Key events today:

24.04 14:00 UTC: USD – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The pair is trading near 159.80, holding close to the psychologically important 160.00 zone. The Dollar is supported by safe-haven demand due to prolonged uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, as well as sustained high oil prices. At the same time, further growth of the pair is limited by the risk of a reaction from Japanese authorities, who have once again declared their readiness for decisive action against excessive Yen movements.

The Bank of Japan, according to market reports, is likely to refrain from raising rates at its April 27–28 meeting, as the conflict in the Middle East complicates the assessment of economic and inflation outlooks. While this approach typically pressures the Yen, the regulator is expected to remain open to future borrowing cost increases if fuel prices continue to fuel inflationary risks.

The combination of a weak Yen, energy prices, and the USD/JPY level near 160.00 increases the likelihood of verbal or practical measures from the Japanese authorities. Even with a steady Dollar, buyers of the pair may act more cautiously as the risk of a sharp pullback grows. Therefore, selling from the 159.80 zone is preferred in the current situation.

Recommendations: SELL 159.80, SL 160.00, TP 158.90.