No major events are expected today.

The pair is declining on Monday and trading around 1.1620, as the US Dollar receives support from rising oil prices and deteriorating global market sentiment. Market participants are factoring in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which strengthens inflationary expectations and supports US Treasury yields. Against this backdrop, demand for the American currency remains elevated.

For the Euro, the situation looks less stable. Expensive energy could intensify price pressure in the Eurozone, but it simultaneously increases risks for industry, consumer spending, and international trade. Investors concede that the ECB might be forced to maintain a cautious stance on rates for longer, but this factor is not yet offsetting the Dollar’s advantage linked to higher US asset yields.

Additional attention this week will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes and preliminary US business activity indices. If the data confirms economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressure, the Dollar may continue to strengthen. In the absence of signs of rapid improvement in the external environment, EUR/USD is likely to maintain a downward bias.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1620, SL 1.1650, TP 1.1530.