Important events today:

10.12 19:00 UTC: USD – FOMC decision on the main interest rate

The pound is holding just above 1.33, but the momentum is limited: on the agenda are the Fed’s decision and subsequent signals from the Bank of England. The market has already priced in a rate cut in December in the US, so the response of the pound will depend on the rhetoric about the trajectory for 2026. If the Fed emphasizes caution and data dependence, demand for the dollar could increase, which would be a headwind for GBP.

In the UK, growth remains sluggish, the consumer is under pressure, and business activity is not showing sustainable acceleration. The comments from members of the Monetary Policy Committee are mixed, but the general message is a balance between inflation risks and a sensitive economy. This limits the likelihood that the Bank of England will quickly distance itself from the global easing trend in case of worsening data.

Another factor is the external position: the trade deficit and dependence on global financial conditions make the pound sensitive to fluctuations in the dollar and US yields. In total, the current set of fundamental drivers supports the idea of short positions in the pair with a strengthening dollar after the Fed’s comments, especially if US data confirms employment resilience and moderate inflation cooling.

Recommendations: SELL 1.3300, SL 1.3330, TP 1.3210