No important events are expected today.

The Euro begins the session in a situation where the ECB’s decision is no longer an unambiguous argument for the currency’s strengthening. On June 11, the regulator raised key interest rates, but simultaneously lifted its inflation forecast for 2026 to 3.0% and lowered its growth estimate to 0.8%. For EUR/USD, this means that a higher cost of money is combined with the risk of weakening business activity and domestic demand.

The energy factor remains important for this assessment. Doubts surrounding the implementation of agreements between the US and Iran maintain uncertainty for oil supplies, and more expensive raw material imports could weigh more heavily on household incomes and European corporate costs. Meanwhile, the Dollar receives support from the Fed’s stance: the rate was kept in the 3.50–3.75% range, and the regulator still notes elevated inflation.

In this combination, the ECB rate hike currently restrains the pace of the Euro’s weakening rather than forming an independent trigger for its sustained growth. Demand for the Dollar and a more vulnerable outlook for the Eurozone economy maintain the upper hand in favor of the US currency. With this fundamental background remaining in place, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in EUR/USD.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1465, SL 1.1495, TP 1.1375.