Key events today:

29.09 14:00 UTC: USD – Pending Home Sales Change.

The euro remains under pressure due to the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar after a series of strong U.S. macro data and renewed debate about the risks of a government shutdown. The upward revision of U.S. Q2 GDP growth has strengthened arguments for a more cautious pace of Fed easing, supporting yields and the dollar. Against this backdrop, the euro, despite brief rebounds, trades near recent multi-week lows.

An additional factor is the expectations for upcoming U.S. inflation and consumer activity releases, which the market considers critical for the Fed’s decision at the end of October. In Europe, investors’ focus is on the trajectory of further disinflation and weak growth, leaving the ECB with room for gradual easing, which narrows the yield differential against the euro.

In the short term, the balance of risks favors moderate dollar strength: market participants prefer defensive positions until the U.S. budget situation and new price/activity data become clearer. Unless the euro receives additional momentum from positive surprises in the eurozone, pressure on EURUSD may persist.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1645.