“Investors have already voted with their money, shifting $69 billion into IBIT compared to just $1.69 billion remaining in BITO,” concluded 24/7 Wall St. analyst Ryne Mauck when comparing the performance of spot and futures bitcoin ETFs. Due to structural characteristics, the futures-based ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) trails the spot-holding iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) across all measured timeframes, demonstrating the long-term inefficiency of the futures model.

Experts point to recurring roll costs associated with expiring futures contracts as the primary reason for BITO’s lag. When a later contract costs more than the expiring one, the fund loses capital with every swap, causing the same dollars to purchase progressively less exposure to the asset. Consequently, over a five-year period, bitcoin itself gained 58.5%, while BITO’s share price remained near where it began at its 2021 launch.

Spot funds like IBIT hold the cryptocurrency directly on their balance sheet and are free from contract roll costs, enabling them to track bitcoin’s price dynamics much more accurately. For this reason, investors continue to reallocate capital into spot instruments, choosing a cleaner and lower-cost vehicle for gaining exposure to the primary cryptocurrency.