After a sharp drop in February and March, Bitcoin unexpectedly gained 15% in April and is now nearing the $100,000 mark. Investors are now wondering — is this the beginning of a new rally or will it end like it did in 2021?

Supporters of the bullish scenario believe the market has already priced in the tariff concerns, and new trade deals with India, Japan, South Korea, and even China may be ahead. In this case, investments in spot Bitcoin ETFs could surge, and the Fear & Greed Index could reach 80 or more — as it did after the elections. Currently, it sits at 51.

However, pessimists warn: if trade talks fail, the economy slows down, and inflation rises, Bitcoin might only grow if trust in the U.S. dollar weakens — becoming “digital gold.” Investors would then track Bitcoin’s performance against gold: if the latter reaches new highs, the former should follow.

Also, remember Bitcoin’s cycles: the last halving occurred in April 2024, and if history repeats, the growth period may last until autumn 2025. But 2021 showed that even record highs don’t guarantee stability — back then, Bitcoin fell 65%, marking the start of a “crypto winter.”

This time looks different: institutional players are active, spot ETFs exist, and strategic reserves are forming. Still, analysts warn that ignoring history is risky — and if you’re investing now, be ready for high volatility and to hold long term.