No major events are expected today.

The EUR/USD pair started the week on a positive note, trading around 1.0860 during the Asian session on Monday. The pair’s upward movement is largely driven by concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated late Sunday that rising uncertainty among businesses could weaken demand in the U.S. economy but does not justify a change in interest rates.

On Friday, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of the expected 160,000. January’s job growth figures were also revised downward to 125,000 from the previously reported 143,000. Weaker-than-expected labor market data may put pressure on the U.S. dollar (USD), providing tailwinds for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, introduced by President Donald Trump in February and set to take effect on Wednesday, are unlikely to be delayed, according to Bloomberg. While American steel producers have urged Trump to maintain the tariffs, businesses relying on these materials may face increased costs. This could weaken market sentiment, support the U.S. dollar, and potentially limit EUR/USD gains.

The euro (EUR) received support from fiscal reforms in Germany, as the country’s major political parties announced plans to revise the debt brake. The proposed changes aim to increase defense spending and fund a €500 billion infrastructure initiative to stimulate economic growth. Additionally, European leaders agreed on a significant increase in defense spending to strengthen the continent’s military capabilities.

Regarding monetary policy, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a widely expected 25 basis point (bps) rate cut and acknowledged a shift towards a less restrictive stance, hinting at a possible pause in further cuts. Market participants anticipate one or two more 25 bps rate cuts this year.

Recommendation: SELL 1.0810, SL 1.0880, TP 1.0715.