Key events today:

03.10 12:30 UTC: USD – Unemployment Rate.

03.10 13:45 UTC: USD – Composite PMI.

03.10 14:00 UTC: USD – ISM Services PMI.

The yen is consolidating near 147.5 per dollar after a strong weekly rally. Support for the national currency comes from signals by the Bank of Japan: the regulator allows for further rate hikes if forecasts for inflation and wages are confirmed. At the same time, risk-off sentiment amid the US government shutdown supports demand for safe-haven assets, traditionally including yen-denominated ones.

On the US side, the picture is mixed: private employment estimates point to slower hiring, while the rate derivatives market continues to price in the probability of a cut as early as this fall. This puts pressure on US Treasury yields and limits the dollar’s growth against the yen. As a result, all else being equal, there remains room for a moderate decline in USDJPY toward the middle of the 146–148 range.

Domestic Japanese data (manufacturing conditions, corporate expectations) are gradually improving, giving the Bank of Japan arguments in favor of policy normalization at year-end. If the tone of official comments continues and US yields remain under pressure, the pair has a chance to test lower levels around 146.5.

Recommendations: SELL 147.55, SL 148.05, TP 146.50.