No major events are expected today.

The EUR/USD pair starts the week consolidating around 1.16 after a strong rally on Friday, triggered by a weak U.S. July jobs report and significant downward revisions to previous data, which reinforced expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. Markets are now pricing in a possible easing as early as September, with short-term Treasury yields retreating — a combination that reduced the dollar’s appeal as a yield asset. On Monday, August 4, the dollar stabilized, but the aftershocks of the weak NFP report continue to influence the EUR/USD balance.

From the Eurozone, the agenda at the start of the week lacks strong catalysts, and ECB rhetoric remains cautious amid uneven recovery. Still, the main fundamental driver for the pair remains the relative monetary policy outlook: if markets continue to price in a faster and deeper Fed easing cycle, the rate differential will favor the euro, supporting EUR demand on pullbacks. Easing inflation risks in the U.S. and a cooling labor market add further context.

Political-market uncertainty in the U.S. should also be factored in, as it could increase short-term dollar volatility. Any fresh signals from the Fed, comments on the rate path, and upcoming labor/inflation data in the U.S. will remain key to shaping the next impulse in EUR/USD in coming sessions. The base case for today is holding Friday’s EUR gains amid lower U.S. yields and sustained Fed pivot expectations.

Recommendation: BUY 1.1575, SL 1.1525, TP 1.1665.