No major events are expected today.

For the euro, the key factor today is not only the pressure from expensive energy but also the reaction of expectations regarding the ECB. The increase in oil prices raises inflationary risks in the eurozone again, which reduces the likelihood of an overly dovish stance from the regulator. The regional economy remains sensitive to import costs, yet it is precisely the inflationary channel that could temporarily support the euro.

The US dollar maintains demand amid geopolitical tensions and rising yields, but part of this advantage has already been priced in by the market after the recent repricing of Fed expectations. Ahead of the US inflation release, market participants might be more cautious about increasing dollar purchases, especially if they expect confirmation of slowing price pressure in the United States. This creates space for a EURUSD recovery.

In the base scenario, the euro’s advantage looks moderate but more justified than a continuation of selling after a strong reaction to an external shock. If expectations for the ECB remain stable and American data does not strengthen the case for a tighter Fed stance, the pair could receive support. Given the current fundamental background, the buying idea looks like a viable scenario.

Recommendations: BUY 1.1400, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1490.