No Major Events Expected Today.

EUR/USD opens the week near multi-month lows, with the external backdrop remaining unfavorable for the euro. The US dollar holds near a two-month high: rising oil prices amid tensions between the US and Iran are reigniting inflation fears, while the market continues to price in the probability of further Fed tightening. Elevated US bond yields are also supporting dollar demand.

The euro’s internal factors remain mixed. The ECB previously raised rates due to an energy shock, and central bank officials warn that energy price pressures could persist longer. This limits room for policy easing while simultaneously raising costs for the eurozone economy. Consequently, hawkish ECB expectations have not yet provided the euro with a sustainable advantage.

During the session, comments from ECB and Fed officials may adjust expectations regarding the future rate trajectory. Since part of the dollar’s strength is already priced in, the downside potential for EUR/USD should be evaluated with caution. Nevertheless, at the start of the session, the US currency retains stronger fundamental momentum, and the base scenario points to continued pressure on the pair.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1315.