Key events for today:

02.03 15:00 UTC: USD – ISM Manufacturing Index.

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1790 at the start of the week, but the dollar is finding support as uncertainty rises. Escalation in the Middle East and a jump in oil prices are boosting demand for safe-haven assets and increasing risks for energy-importing economies, including the eurozone. In this environment, the euro often underperforms the dollar due to concerns about growth momentum and business costs.

For the dollar, the main reference point is expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. Today’s U.S. manufacturing data (including the ISM index) can affect how investors assess demand resilience and inflation risks. Stronger readings typically support Treasury yields and the dollar, while weaker figures revive the debate over earlier policy easing.

In Europe, investors are watching final business activity surveys and German data to gauge whether the economy can absorb a new energy shock. The ECB remains cautious and stresses data dependence, so the mix of expensive energy and a weak growth impulse can keep the euro under pressure. With risk premia elevated, the baseline backdrop still favors further downside in the pair.

Recommendation: SELL 1.1790, SL 1.1810, TP 1.1730