No important events are expected today.

The Euro receives support following the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates and revise its inflation forecasts upward. For EUR/USD, what matters is not just the regulator’s step itself, but also the signal of its readiness to restrain the pass-through of the energy shock into prices. Concurrently, the Eurozone growth forecast was lowered, so demand for the Euro remains cautious: the region’s economy is sensitive to energy costs and weak business activity.

The US Dollar is giving up ground following reports of a framework agreement between the US and Iran and a decline in oil prices. For the market, this reduces the fear of a new wave of energy inflation and makes Fed expectations less one-sided. The American regulator will likely keep the rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting, but if pressure from oil eases, interest in the Dollar as a safe-haven asset may decline.

As a result, EUR/USD gets room for recovery, although the pair’s upside is limited by the Eurozone’s weak prospects. A more sustainable scenario looks to be one where the Euro maintains support from the ECB while the Dollar loses part of its caution premium. While the current fundamental background persists, the buying idea aligns with a moderate shift in sentiment in favor of EUR/USD.

Recommendations: BUY 1.1600, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1690.