Important events today:

12:30 UTC: USD – Retail Sales Control Group.

The pair is trading near 158.50 as the US Dollar maintains its advantage amid revised expectations for Fed policy. Rising oil prices and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing inflationary pressure, while recent retail sales and jobless claims data demonstrate the resilience of the American economy. This supports demand for the Dollar against the Yen.

The Yen remains vulnerable despite talk of potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. According to Reuters, Japan already conducted Yen purchases in early May as USD/JPY approached the 160.00 area. Such steps may curb sharp upward movements, but so far they do not change the overall balance of power: the yield differential between the US and Japan continues to work in favor of the Dollar.

In Japan, inflationary pressure is also intensifying due to high energy costs and a weak national currency, raising expectations for tighter decisions from the Bank of Japan at upcoming meetings. However, until concrete signals emerge from the regulator, the market remains focused on US statistics and Fed expectations. Therefore, the baseline scenario remains a moderate rise in USD/JPY with an increased risk of intervention from Tokyo.

Recommendations: BUY 158.50, SL 158.20, TP 159.40.