Key events today:

17.09 06:00 UTC: GBP – Consumer Price Index.

17.09 18:00 UTC: USD – FOMC decision on the main interest rate.

The pound is supported by the “stickiness” of domestic inflation: in July the figure accelerated to 3.8% y/y, and publications and comments indicate the risk of persistent high inflation, forcing the Bank of England to act cautiously in easing and maintaining a premium on UK bond yields.

A scenario of a 25 bps Fed rate cut today creates a soft external background for the USD and narrows the yield differential in favor of GBP, boosting inflows into sterling assets on expectations that the BoE will signal a slower pace of easing against persistent price pressures.

Market benchmarks for GBPUSD in recent weeks have concentrated in the 1.35–1.36 corridor, confirmed by behavioral price series and news flow, aligning trade levels with current spot values and fundamental drivers.

Additionally, market participants are monitoring the US agenda: ahead of the Fed meeting, the dollar index declined and equities traded cautiously, reflecting an almost full pricing-in of the 25 bps cut and the search for dovish signals in the rhetoric, which, if confirmed, increases the chances of pound strengthening.

The risk balance for GBP is also supported by the fact that the Bank of England has previously eased policy gradually and may prefer a pause amid accelerating services inflation, thereby maintaining the pound’s attractiveness relative to currencies with faster rate cuts.

Recommendations: BUY 1.3650, SL 1.3630, TP 1.3750.