Important events today:

29.12 13:30 UTC: USD – Initial Jobless Claims

GBP/USD on December 24, 2025, is trading around 1.3510–1.3520, benefiting from the general weakness of the dollar due to expectations of rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. Against the backdrop of a thin pre-holiday market, the reaction to the statistics is amplified, but the overall sentiment for the pair is supported by an improved outlook for the UK economy following the GDP revision for Q3 and higher-than-expected foreign investment returns.

The Bank of England lowered rates to 3.75% last week, but the decision was made with a minimal margin, and the regulator signaled that further moves would be cautious. With inflation above the target level, the market is increasingly doubtful about a fast rate-cut cycle, which supports demand for the pound, especially amid signs of stabilization in business investment.

Today, the key focus will be on US statistics for initial jobless claims: weak figures will increase expectations of Fed policy easing, which would pressure the dollar. Against this backdrop, the base scenario is continued interest in buying the pound against the dollar, with a focus on fundamental signals from the US and the UK.

Recommendation: BUY 1.3520, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3625