“I expect a price swing in the range of $6,000-$8,000 as a reaction to the election,” said Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at the Amberdata platform, in an interview with CoinDesk. This forecast is based on an annual volatility of 112%, according to Deribit options data from November 6, which indicates potential price fluctuations of $4,000 in either direction.

Similar BTC swings were observed in early August when the mass unwinding of yen carry trades led to a drop in bitcoin to $50,000. Magadini estimates a 1.5-sigma probability, as the chances for Trump and Harris in seven key states are almost equal, suggesting a low probability of surprises for the market, regardless of the election outcome.

Options traders are already positioning for bullish volatility, purchasing call options at $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000 on Deribit and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, indicating growing optimism.