Key events today:

05.09.25 12:30 UTC: USD – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate.

A series of U.S. economic data showed that the labor market situation is deteriorating. The August Challenger Job Cuts report revealed that companies laid off nearly 86,000 Americans, while the ADP National Employment Report for August fell short of expectations. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits increased as employment data took center stage.

Market participants have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut. Nevertheless, the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report suggests that EUR/USD traders should wait for its release before opening new positions.

Other data showed that the trade deficit widened in July as companies rushed to boost shipments and inventories ahead of tariffs taking effect. At the same time, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), business activity in the services sector improved.

Considering the U.S. fundamentals, this scenario implies an economic slowdown but resilience. However, the labor market seems to be weighing heavily, justifying Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pivot in Jackson Hole, where he opened the door to adjusting interest rates.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1665, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1580.