No significant events are expected today.

USD/JPY is trading near 153.8–154.0 following the Bank of Japan meeting on October 30, where the regulator left the interest rate unchanged and indicated that a future hike may occur once wage growth and inflation trends are confirmed. The lack of immediate tightening has added to yen weakness, as the yield differential with the U.S. remains wide and JGB yields are still influenced by a gradual normalization policy.

In the U.S., the recent 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve has not removed the relative advantage of dollar-denominated assets: Treasury yields remain elevated, and cautious comments from Fed officials regarding December continue to support the dollar through expectations of real rate levels. In this environment, equity flows and currency hedging strategies by Japanese investors (using swap income) work in favor of a weaker yen.

Another factor is Japan’s external trade and the economy’s sensitivity to energy imports: a weak yen currently improves conditions for exporters but raises import costs, limiting the Bank of Japan’s readiness for rapid policy changes. Overall, this supports the scenario of a gradual renewal of local highs in USD/JPY.

Recommendations: BUY 153.80, SL 153.15, TP 154.50