No major events expected today.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1552 on Monday, with demand for the dollar strengthening amid risk-off sentiment. Escalation of the Middle East conflict supports the U.S. currency as a safe haven, while rising oil and gas prices make the market cautious about prospects for a rate cut in the U.S. Additional support for the dollar comes from higher U.S. bond yields.

The outlook for the euro appears more vulnerable. The European Central Bank kept rates at 2% but raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.6% from 1.9% and lowered its eurozone GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%. This implies accelerating prices alongside weakening business activity, while a prolonged energy shock could increase pressure on industry and consumption.

Against this backdrop, the advantage remains with the dollar. The U.S. economy appears more resilient to rising energy prices, and the market has already significantly reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. As long as commodity market tensions persist, the euro will face challenges in recovering, so the baseline scenario for today anticipates a downward move from current levels.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1550, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1460