Important events today:

01.04 12:15 UTC: USD – ADP Employment Change.

01.04 12:30 UTC: GBP – USD – Retail Sales Change.

01.04 14:00 UTC: GBP – ISM Manufacturing Index.

GBP/USD remains around 1.3240–1.3250, but the pound remains vulnerable: in the UK, rising energy prices and supply disruptions are hitting import costs and inflation, while investors assess the sustainability of the budget amid rising borrowing costs.

The Bank of England rate market remains nervous: some participants expect a tougher reaction to inflation, but economist surveys indicate a high probability of keeping the rate unchanged. Such uncertainty reduces the pound’s attractiveness, especially if business activity and consumption data continue to show cooling.

From the US side, the key benchmark this week is the employment report: strong figures will support the dollar through expectations of high rates, while weak ones will temporarily weaken it. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and expensive energy, the base scenario for today is a dollar advantage, so the potential decline in GBP/USD looks more pronounced. This maintains demand for the dollar.

Recommendations: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3275, TP 1.3155