Key events today:

30.07 12:30 UTC: USD – Quarterly GDP Change
30.07 18:30 UTC: USD – FOMC Interest Rate Decision

The pound remains under pressure amid a strengthening dollar ahead of the Fed’s announcement on July 30, 2025, and continued global market caution. Domestically, the UK faces heightened sensitivity to slowing consumer activity and a cooling labor market, along with ongoing debates over budget parameters and borrowing levels — all of which add to risk premiums. These conditions increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will maintain a cautious tone without delivering hawkish signals, limiting GBP support.

Externally, the backdrop is also unfavorable for the pound: the dollar benefits from flows into safe-haven assets and the relative strength of the US economy over the coming quarters. Under these conditions, trade and capital flows tend to favor the USD, while the British currency is often used as a funding vehicle “in favor of the dollar” until the Fed’s tone becomes clearer.

The main risk to the bearish GBP scenario would be unexpectedly dovish comments from the Fed, which could lower US yields and weaken the dollar index, or stronger UK inflation/wage data, which could raise expectations for the Bank of England to maintain tighter policy for longer. For now, however, the fundamental bias remains to the downside for GBPUSD.

Recommendation: SELL 1.3355, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3300.