No significant events expected today.

The dollar holds near 146.50 against the yen: another rise in U.S. yields and steady demand for safe-haven U.S. assets following Fed comments are supporting appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish.

Trade tensions are exacerbating the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas of “umbrella” duties are fueling fears of a trade war, pushing investors toward funding currencies. Reuters notes the yen weakened to 146.4, posting a weekly drop of over 1%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: inflation has slowed to 1.8% y/y, and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. Divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machinery orders, industrial production) through July 14 provide a fundamental basis for a move toward 147.50 and higher, while downside risks are limited to the 145.90 zone.

Recommendation: BUY 146.50, SL 145.90, TP 147.50.