Important events today:

26.11 13:30 UTC: USD – Initial Jobless Claims.

GBP/USD is holding above 1.31 on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, ahead of the UK autumn budget release. In recent sessions, the pair has been fluctuating near recent monthly highs but has not formed a sustained upward momentum: UK government bond yields are drifting lower, and market participants prefer to reduce risk until more details on the budget’s spending and tax components are revealed. Against this backdrop, the short-term balance of factors is shifting against the pound, given the currency’s high sensitivity to fiscal decisions and their impact on economic activity.

October data suggests a slowdown in consumer inflation in the UK and further easing of price pressures in the services sector. Combined with signs of cooling demand, this strengthens expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England in December. Potential fiscal consolidation that the Treasury may outline today further limits domestic demand and growth prospects, traditionally reducing the pound’s premium and making it more vulnerable to correction in a neutral external environment.

Meanwhile, the US maintains a relative advantage in growth rates and yields, and caution ahead of a series of US publications supports the dollar. In these conditions, the risk of a pullback in the pound from higher levels remains: if it settles below the recent highs, there is likely to be renewed interest in selling. Based on the current news configuration, a short position scenario from 1.3200 is justified with moderate risk limits, targeting a return to 1.3110.

Recommendations: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3220, TP 1.3110