No significant events are expected today.

The euro is fluctuating near 1.16 after a series of mixed signals: in the eurozone, attention is focused on Germany’s preliminary inflation estimates and a set of indicators, while the ECB maintains a cautious tone ahead of the December meeting. Comments from some Governing Council members suggest it is premature to discuss further easing while core price pressure remains above target, and short-term liquidity reflected in €STR shows no signs of a sharp loosening in conditions. Against the backdrop of moderate growth in U.S. Treasury yields, interest in the dollar is supported, limiting the euro’s upside potential.

In the U.S., after the “short” week, the reassessment of the rate trajectory continues: markets are in no rush to increase expectations of early Fed easing, as recent macro data point to resilience in consumption and the labor market. This prevents further weakening of the dollar and encourages investors to cautiously lock in profits on long euro positions. Additional pressure comes from cross-market flows into dollar assets amid ongoing fiscal risks in certain EU countries.

The current picture favors a tactical decline in EURUSD: the ECB’s neutral stance combined with moderately stable U.S. data supports the dollar near 1.16. In this environment, preference is given to selling from 1.1595 with a stop at 1.1625 and a target of 1.1495 — an idea based on the balance of fundamental drivers and the likelihood of flows into defensive assets if sentiment worsens.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1495