The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which links Bitcoin’s value to its scarcity and reduction of supply after halvings, is once again signaling one of its most bullish scenarios. According to the model’s creator, PlanB, BTC could climb to $222,000 within the next two years. This outlook is drawing renewed attention from investors ahead of the new market cycle.

However, analysts note that the model may overestimate the impact of scarcity and overlook changing market dynamics. Experts at Bitwise emphasize that S2F does not fully account for institutional demand or broader macroeconomic factors. Moreover, historically Bitcoin has often traded below the levels suggested by the S2F curve, raising questions about the model’s precision.

Alternative valuation frameworks are also being discussed. The BAERM model estimates Bitcoin’s “fair value” at around $159,000, with a potential move to $173,000 by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the more conservative Power Law model suggests a long-term trajectory toward approximately $2 million per BTC, reflecting gradually decreasing returns as the asset matures.

Even so, market participants highlight that demand structure and liquidity have shifted significantly with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and increased corporate accumulation. These factors may lead to a reassessment of traditional pricing models, meaning Bitcoin’s behavior in the upcoming cycle could differ from past growth phases.