The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% on Tuesday, erasing its gains since the election. According to Citigroup data, the market expects swings of 1.4% in either direction following Trump’s address to Congress—the biggest move since November.
Trump warned of potential economic difficulties and reaffirmed his plan to raise tariffs. However, S&P 500 futures recovered some losses after the Commerce Secretary suggested possible tariff relief.
Options volatility remains high. On Friday, the market expects another 1.3% move as job data is released. Bloomberg forecasts show the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs in February, with unemployment steady at 4% and wages rising 4.1%.
The VIX index hit its highest level since December. According to Stuart Kaiser from Citigroup, worsening economic data and Trump’s trade policies are driving market volatility.