No major events are expected today.

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1660 on Monday, January 12, reflecting dollar weakness after reports of an investigation involving Federal Reserve leadership and rising market nervousness. Investors are pricing in higher uncertainty around the U.S. rate outlook and are temporarily reducing demand for the dollar, while shifting toward safe-haven assets and gold.

On the U.S. side, the picture is mixed. Recent labor market data point to resilient employment, reducing the likelihood of rapid Fed easing. At the same time, markets are awaiting the release of December consumer price data—an upside surprise could quickly restore support for the dollar, while moderate inflation would strengthen expectations of rate cuts later in 2026.

The euro is supported by eurozone data: December inflation has returned to around 2%, reinforcing arguments for an ECB pause after a series of rate cuts in 2024–2025. If the ECB maintains current policy settings while the Fed remains constrained by both inflation risks and political noise, the balance of factors favors a gradual strengthening of EUR/USD.

Recommendations: BUY 1.1660, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1720