No important events are expected today.

The pair is trading near 1.1640 on Monday, May 25, following a rise at the beginning of the Asian session. The US Dollar is losing ground as expectations of a potential agreement on the Strait of Hormuz have reduced demand for safe-haven assets and pushed oil below $100 per barrel. For the Euro, this provides support: easing energy pressure improves the assessment of the Eurozone economic outlook.

An additional factor in favor of the Euro remains signals from the ECB regarding its readiness to return to rate hikes if inflation does not slow down. This background limits selling of the European currency, especially amid investor caution toward the Dollar. In the US, the market is pricing in the probability of a prolonged period of high rates, but today this factor is giving way to an improvement in global risk sentiment.

At the same time, the rise of EUR/USD may remain uneven, as most economists estimate that the Fed is in no hurry to transition to rate cuts in 2026. If the Middle East negotiations do not lead to a quick result, demand for the Dollar could recover. For now, the baseline scenario for the pair remains moderately upward: the Euro receives support from the ECB’s stance and the reduction in oil risks.

Recommendations: BUY 1.1640, SL 1.1610, TP 1.1730.